Diffusion of Innovation Adopter Calculator
Rogers’ diffusion of innovations divides a market into five adopter groups by when they take up something new: innovators, early adopters, the early majority, the late majority, and laggards. Each group responds to different arguments, so knowing which group you are reaching now tells you what the next campaign has to do.
Everything above runs in your browser and saves to this device only. It opens on quarterly mobile check-in users across a hotel group. Enter adopters and market potential, or paste new adopters per period and fit the Bass model.
How it works
Cumulative adoption is the share of the market potential that has adopted. Rogers’ groups are bands of a normal curve: innovators are the first 2.5%, early adopters the next 13.5%, the early majority and late majority 34% each, and laggards the final 16%.
The Bass model splits adoption into two forces: innovation, people who adopt on their own, and imitation, people who adopt because others have.
p = innovation coefficient, q = imitation coefficient, m = market potential
Peak adoption at t* = ln(q ÷ p) ÷ (p + q)
The coefficients are estimated by ordinary least squares on new adopters against cumulative adopters, the method in Bass (1969).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the diffusion of innovations theory?
Diffusion of innovations, from Everett Rogers (1962), explains how new products spread through a market. Adopters fall into five groups by when they adopt: innovators, early adopters, the early majority, the late majority, and laggards.
What percentage is each adopter category?
Innovators are 2.5% of eventual adopters, early adopters 13.5%, the early majority 34%, the late majority 34%, and laggards 16%. The bands come from a normal curve cut at one and two standard deviations from the mean.
What is the Bass diffusion model?
The Bass model (1969) forecasts adoption from two forces: innovation (p), adoption driven by outside influence such as advertising, and imitation (q), adoption driven by existing users. With market potential m, it predicts the size and timing of peak adoption.
How do you use adopter categories in marketing?
Match the argument to the group you are reaching. Early adopters respond to a clear advantage, the early majority needs proof and references, and the late majority needs low risk, a low price, and evidence that most people already use it.
Is this Diffusion of Innovation Calculator free?
Yes. The Diffusion of Innovation Calculator is free and opens straight away in any modern browser, including on a phone. Everything you enter is processed in your browser and stays on your device.